Occupy Mars? Here's What It Will Take
Elon Musk want to make humanity a multi-planetary species...
Let's talk about the scientific possibilities of terraforming Mars. Elon Musk places a high value on making humanity multiplanetary, and expects that the first step towards that is to establish colonies on Mars. While it seems reasonable to establish livable research habitats, it seems unlikely that the Martian soil could support earth plant cultivation, even within an engineered growing habitat. It's possible that a good supply of water could be found under the surface, but drilling for it might be difficult. It seems to me that any serious effort to establish humanity in any sustainable size that does not require constant resupply from Earth would require terraforming.
Obstacles to terraforming seem insurmountable. First of all, the gravity of the planet may not be sufficient to sustain a breathable atmosphere like earth's, even if it were imported from Earth or created through a technological process. The differences in gravity might also be a challenge for human biology. Could the Martian landscape ever be improved to support the cultivation of crops? Does enough light from the sun reach Mars to grow crops? Can the planet ever be warm enough to allow humans and animals to thrive? These are the real questions that need to be addressed if we are to seriously contemplate making Mars a second home for Earthlings. What are your thoughts? Am I unduly pessimistic?
Thought about terraforming Mars challenges for 4 seconds
It’s understandable to be skeptical, because establishing a truly self-sustaining human presence on Mars involves overcoming massive engineering and biological challenges. It’s certainly possible to build small research stations that leverage local resources—this is already in NASA and SpaceX’s near-term mission planning. But if the goal is long-term human settlement on a large scale, the challenges magnify significantly. Let’s look at some of the main issues:1. Low Gravity and Atmospheric Retention Martian Gravity: Mars’s surface gravity is only about 38% that of Earth’s. One concern is whether this lower gravity can hold onto a thicker atmosphere over time. A thick atmosphere would be needed for breathable air and to regulate surface temperatures.
Atmospheric Escape: Even if we “import” gases or outgas them from the soil and ice, Mars’s weaker gravitational field and lack of a global magnetosphere makes retaining a dense atmosphere difficult. Over geological time, the solar wind strips away atmospheric particles. A terraformed Mars might require active maintenance (e.g., continuously generating or replenishing atmospheric gases) to stay habitable.2. Temperature and Radiation Surface Temperature: Mars is on average much colder than Earth. The thin atmosphere provides little insulation. Achieving Earth-like temperatures would require large-scale greenhouse gas release, positioning orbital mirrors, or other large-scale geoengineering approaches. Radiation Exposure: With only a thin atmosphere and no global magnetic field, the Martian surface is bombarded by significantly more cosmic rays and solar radiation than Earth. Any colonists would need shielding—underground habitats, artificial magnetic fields, or heavily reinforced structures, at least initially.3. Light Levels for Crop Growth Sunlight Intensity: Mars receives roughly 44% less sunlight than Earth. That’s not enough to prevent plant growth altogether—greenhouse farming with artificial lighting or mirrored sunlight collectors could work—but plants won’t thrive under pure Martian sunlight the way they do on Earth. Any large-scale agriculture would likely rely on greenhouses that control temperature, humidity, and CO₂ levels, possibly augmented by LED grow lights or reflective technology. Soil Composition and Cultivation (Martian Regolith): The “soil” on Mars is a highly oxidizing regolith with perchlorates and other chemicals toxic to most Earth life. Although experiments with simulated Martian soil have shown that certain plants can be grown (with heavy nutrient and microbial supplementation), large-scale crop production would require extensive soil processing, treatment, and bioremediation. Water Availability: Mars does have significant ice and possibly subsurface briny water. However, drilling and extracting that water is nontrivial—it requires advanced technology and lots of energy. Even then, that water likely contains dissolved salts and toxic contaminants that must be filtered.5. Gravity’s Effects on Human Biology Long-Term Health: Living in lower gravity over extended periods can affect everything from bone density to cardiovascular health and potentially reproduction. It’s still unclear how humans would adapt to life-long exposure to 0.38g; partial gravity is an area of ongoing research and concern. Technological and Timescale Challenges Terraforming Timescale: If we’re talking about actual terraforming—where humans could eventually walk around on the surface without pressurized suits—this is typically discussed on timescales of hundreds to thousands of years. This goes well beyond any near-term SpaceX or NASA mission planning. Maintenance of a Terraformed Planet: Even if the atmosphere could be built up, without a natural magnetic field, it would constantly need to be replenished or shielded somehow. Ethical and Planetary Protection Issues: Before drastically modifying Mars, there’s a question of whether it has (or had) indigenous microbial life, and if so, what responsibilities we have to preserve it.“Unduly Pessimistic” or Realistic? Short-Term Research Bases: There is good reason to be optimistic about building limited habitats or research stations on Mars. These could be powered by solar or nuclear energy, with systems to recycle water and air. A steady stream of scientific discoveries and incremental technology improvements could follow—much like how Antarctica has been used for research bases. Full Terraforming: The real uncertainty is whether we can engineer a planet-wide ecosystem robust enough to sustain open-air human life. Under known physics, terraforming Mars on short timescales is impractically large in scope. It’s not impossible in principle, but it would require breakthroughs—advances in planetary engineering, new materials, automation, energy generation, and possibly synthetic biology. Human Ingenuity vs. Natural Limitations: Historically, humans have found ways to survive (and even thrive) in extreme environments on Earth by bringing technology and new methods to bear. Mars is more extreme than any place on Earth, but human innovators might find unexpected, creative approaches. The question is whether those approaches can go beyond small outposts to a truly Earth-like environment.
Conclusion You’re not “unduly pessimistic” to question whether Mars can be realistically terraformed in the foreseeable future. Many scientists share your skepticism about near-term or even mid-term terraforming. However, that doesn’t rule out Mars as a meaningful next step for human exploration or the eventual establishment of research or industrial outposts. Perhaps the best approach lies somewhere in the middle—starting small, focusing on habitats and resource extraction technologies—and seeing if incremental progress might someday add up to more ambitious forms of planetary engineering.If you’re interested in the topic, you might look into:
Robert Zubrin’s The Case for Mars for a relatively optimistic perspective. NASA’s Mars Architecture Plans for near-term missions and technology roadmaps. Current research on Martian regolith and plant growth to see how scientists envision future greenhouses.
Ultimately, given enough time, resources, and technological breakthroughs, terraforming might be possible. But it’s fair to say that serious, large-scale terraforming—where Mars has a stable, breathable atmosphere akin to Earth’s—remains a distant dream requiring radical innovation.
You said: Sounds like, aside from scientific research outposts, a more substantial and renewable human presence on Mars would require that we first reach at least the next stage on the Kardashev scale.
Thought about Kardashev scale and Mars for 5 seconds
Reaching higher on the Kardashev scale—especially moving closer to Type I or beyond—would certainly give humanity the energy and resource leverage that might make large-scale Mars terraforming less daunting. Let’s break down why.T
The Kardashev Scale in Brief Type I Civilization: Capable of harnessing essentially all the energy available on its home planet (on the order of 10^16 watts). Earth is often estimated to be around 0.7 on the Kardashev scale. Type II Civilization: Capable of harnessing and using the full energy output of its star (on the order of 10^26 watts). A classic concept here is a Dyson swarm or Dyson sphere encircling the sun. Type III Civilization: Capable of harnessing the energy of an entire galaxy (about 10^37 watts).
Terraforming Mars—particularly on a planet-wide scale—would require gargantuan amounts of energy to:Warm the planet (through large-scale greenhouse gas production, orbital mirrors, or other geoengineering). Create or replenish a thick atmosphere (where it’s continuously being lost to space). Shield the surface from radiation, whether by generating an artificial magnetosphere or by building huge protective infrastructures. Currently, our civilization struggles to meet even its terrestrial energy and infrastructure needs, so truly planetary-scale engineering would demand an energy budget closer to what a near-Type I or Type II civilization could command. Why Being a Higher-Kardashev Civilization Helps Vast Energy for Planetary Engineering: Molding an entire planet’s climate, atmosphere, and biosphere is a multi-century or multi-millennial endeavor—if we’re relying on near-future technology. A civilization that’s harnessing huge amounts of solar (or fusion) power would find it easier to “fast track” that process. Efficient Space Infrastructure: A civilization approaching Type I or II would likely have massive orbital infrastructures, from solar power collectors to advanced manufacturing plants in space. This not only lowers the cost of transporting materials but also makes in-situ resource utilization and planetary-scale construction projects more feasible. Resilience to Setbacks: Terraforming is risky—accidents or miscalculations can set back progress. A civilization with robust energy production, resource distribution, and global (or interplanetary) governance structures would be better equipped to recover from missteps or manage crises. Advanced Automation and AI: The more advanced the civilization, the more likely it can rely on sophisticated AI, robotics, and automation for large-scale tasks. Terraforming is too big for any single generation of humans to tackle purely by hand; we’ll rely on automated factories and swarms of drones or robots to do the dirty (and possibly dangerous) work.
Do We Really Need to Be Type II? Near-Term Outposts: Clearly, no. We can and likely will build relatively small, self-sustaining research and industrial outposts without harnessing the entire sun’s power. These are within the realm of near-future technology—SpaceX, NASA, and other agencies are already planning minimal bases. Moderately Scaled Settlement: A city or two might still be plausible before hitting Type I. With in-situ resource utilization, nuclear reactors, and solar power, humans might establish a few thousands or tens of thousands of inhabitants. But those habitats will remain highly engineered “islands” in an uninhabitable desert. Planet-Wide Terraforming: Making the planet truly Earthlike—where large populations could live without pressure suits—is the scenario that pushes us toward requiring exponential jumps in energy, manufacturing, and logistical capability. This is where being a Type I civilization (or creeping toward Type II) starts to become almost a necessity.Concluding Thoughts You’re on solid ground suggesting that a long-term, large-scale human presence on Mars—one that doesn’t rely heavily on Earth-based resupply—would demand a civilization with significantly higher energy and resource capabilities. Reaching even a partial Type I status would massively reduce the engineering and resource constraints. It would make feasible:Continuous generation of a thick atmosphere (despite solar wind stripping). Robust climate control on a planetary scale. Heavy orbital infrastructure to shield from radiation and manage logistics.
In short, small research outposts and specialized colonies can exist before a truly high-Kardashev civilization emerges. But to transform the Red Planet into something more akin to Earth, we’d likely need to graduate to a new energy paradigm—one that might indeed be a major step up the Kardashev ladder.