Long Term B-Wave Top Has Finally Arrived

As regular readers of the BullBear Market Report know, I have been expecting to see a B-wave high in a largely sideways long term formation. It seems to me that chances are fairly high that we have seen the top of the B-wave rally off the September 2022 low. The next move is then a C-wave decline, the third movement in the pattern that started with the top made in December 2021.

This rally has dragged on a bit higher and longer than expected and has lingered for some time above the 2021 high, but technical signs are strong that with today’s news of hot inflation, we have seen the top. The rally has been largely based on the notion that the Fed would be able to cut interest rates and resume its easy money policies, but that seems to have been called into question, with projections for rate cuts dropping sharply in short order.

It’s very likely that the algorithmic machines of the large players can read the same tea leaves, and with public enthusiasm for “the market” running hotter than Fed rate cut expectations, it’s probably time for a trading washout that will set up the next trading buy.

Chances are very high that we have recently seen the first minor degree a-wave decline from the top and that now we will see a minor degree b-wave rally that will recover much of the recent losses. From there, the main movement of the first intermediate term decline will begin. So active traders should be looking for an opportunity to lighten up positions in the coming weeks.

In strategic terms, this is a call for a trading high, so if you have been long from lower levels, this is the time to take profits on the trade and get ready to buy again when this decline completes later in the year. Long term investment capital in Big Tech and the major capitalization stocks is safe, but one could place a hedge here to protect profits. As I have been saying for quite some time, it is time to exit small cap stocks, since the major economic disruptions that will reconfigure all of economics is going to hit that sector hard, with entire swaths of smaller and mid cap issues seeing their fundamental business models eradicated.

Aggressive traders could attempt a short play here, but it’s definitely not a “bet the farm” scenario. A better approach is to lighten up or hedge longs and prepare to buy the C-wave dip.

Let’s have a look at the charts, with a focus on the long term Monthly view.

SPY monthly:

View fullsize

We have the 2021 high as the end of a long term bull move from the 2011 bear market termination point. The top came with an exhaustion move above the upper rail of the green long term trend channel. The A-wave low came with a touch of the blue 50 month EMA. The current high is showing a large bear RSI divergence, which is very common at such highs. You can look back at the 2018 and 2019 highs and see a similar bear pattern leading into the 2020 crash. Historically, large bear RSI divergences like this have been strong predictors of a significant top. During the last major period of consumer price inflation, in the 70’s and 80’s, there was a similar long term sideways pattern with the tops marked by bear RSI divergences.

It is also significant that price is now contacting the upper rail of the long term green channel, marking a point of technical resistance.

I would not expect a lower low in SPY, but rather a higher low with a retest of the blue 50 month EMA, which has been key support since 2011.

QQQ monthly:

Confirms the analysis of the SPY chart.

DIA monthly:

Basically the same scenario playing out.

Wilshire 4500 (total market excluding SPX 500) shows a large non-confirmation of the new high, which when combined with the bear RSI divergences, contributes to a bearish setup.

Small cap stocks are not only not confirming, but are set up to break lower on a long term basis.

It would only take about a -10% drop (not a lot for the small cap sector) to take out the 50 month EMA and then the green long term channel. The pattern is one of the clearest A-B bear sequences you are likely to see. If all charts looked like this I would be very bearish on the long term.

Transports barely managed to make a new high, bit are now back below the 2021/2022 high marks.

Let’s have a look at the weekly charts.

SPY weekly confirms the look of the monthly chart with a poke above the upper green resistance rail just as RSI has reached long term upside extended technical condition.

A retreat of about 20% would reset RSI back to its support zone and retest the October 2023 low and probably the red 200 week EMA as well. Both traders and investors would want to buy that.

QQQ weekly:

Same picture, but with the added feature of a long series of weekly RSI divergences going back to February.

Now let’s look at some daily charts, which show that we have probably seen a short term low and will now see a rally.

SPY daily:

Daily RSI reached its downside extended support. The 20 day and 50 day EMAs are close to a bearish cross. Generally this is a setup for a reaction rally. Active traders would want to sell into that.

QQQ daily:

Reached lower support on RSI as the main green trendline and the red 200 day EMA were approached. Look for a rally back to the 50 day EMA in blue, and sell into it if you are an active trader.

IWM daily:

RSI reached support as the red 200 day EMA was contacted. This is going to be the last best chance to get the hell out of small cap stocks before this sector goes into a serious decline.

There are quite a few bearish setups on the technical charts that confirm the long and intermediate term analysis.

The Bull/Bear sentiment ratio reached the same level that it did before the 2020 top, so all are on board and committed.

50 week Breadth Momentum Oscillator got very upside extended and then put in a large bear divergence.

Same for 200 Day SPX McLellan Oscillator. Got more upside extended than ever and then put in a large bear divergence and is falling hard.

50 Day SPX advancing issues shows the same basic setup as does Net SPX Advances-Declines.

Volume technicals shows the same. 50 day SPX Advance-Decline Volume Ratio.

There are many more similar technical charts. The overall picture on a technical basis is intermediate to longer term bearish, with a solid setup for the C-wave down in a longer term sideways pattern. I expect the entire process to last about 12–18 months before the next long term buy setup emerges.

“The Economy” has cracks that are starting to show and can’t be hidden by happy talk from DC. The Fed is not well positioned to cut rates and will have to at least hold current policy, which is not what traders have been betting on. Expect to see a wave of bankruptcies and mergers in the smaller cap sectors.

The entire domestic and global economy is going to be reset by AI, robotics and related tech. Business and economic models of the past will simply no longer apply. While the new paradigm gets sorted out, there will be a lot of interim chaos. And of course there’s this little thing called World War III which is already well under way (has been for years, as I have been telling you). And of course there’s the civil wars in the western nations which could get kinetic in this election year.

Long term “markets” will move higher as more and more future value is funneled into the present through the debt mechanism. Eventually, the productivity gains by world changing tech will start to realized present value, and economics will change into something entirely new. I have a good idea about what that will be and I will be writing about that.

Be sure to join the new site. Much more to come! And more frequent updates on the “market” and economic situation. Stay tuned!

Short Film: "Red Ribbon Remembrance"

"Red Ribbon Remembrance"

Grandfather and Granddaughter bond through sacred rites of remembrance and love for departed Grandmother. The LOVE transcends all and transports the soul to a mystical place of togetherness!

Submitted to the @runwayml #Gen48 competition. All video sources are @runwayml Gen2 generations.

Please LIKE, COMMENT and SHARE the LOVE!

Shalom Shanti Salaam

Grandfather and Granddaughter bond through sacred rites of remembrance and love for departed Grandmother. The LOVE transcends all and transports the soul to a mystical place of togetherness!

"Wings of Peace: Miracle on Temple Mount"

"Wings of Peace: Miracle on Temple Mount" is an AI-generated dramatic short film inspiring Hope for Peace and Reconciliation between Israelis and Palestinians.

"On a day of strife in Jerusalem two young women from the conflicting cultures are mystically drawn together on the Temple Mount and through the courage of their fast friendship the tide in the Holy City is turned towards Peace and Reconciliation."

"Wings of Peace: Miracle on Temple Mount", Act 1: Jerusalem Dawning, premiered at the AI Music and Video Festival in Las Vegas on March 29, 2024.

The film and almost all of its audio, including the theme song, is 100% AI generated. It represents a snapshot of what was possible in the earliest days of the emergence of a new art form. It's imperfect and rough by nature. I like to call it my early Cave Painting. Just like the early cave dweller scratching out a vision on a wall, I used the first generation of the new AI tools to make the best representation of an inner vision possible with the current state of the art.

The emphasis here was on character and character interactivity, between characters and between character and environment. Shot by shot, there was a focus on facial expression and body movement as well as camera movement to link and flow action between shots. I had the goal of telling a story visually, with picture and action conveying the narrative.

I expect that Act 2 will be stylistically very different, as it will employ the 2nd generation of AI creative tools. I'm ok with that, and I think one of the things this project might contribute is a documentation of the evolution of the state of this new art over time. We'll see Rachel, Grandfather, Samira, Market Lady and The Dove evolve and express themselves in fuller and richer ways in each new installment of the story.

🙏Thanks for watching. Please LIKE COMMENT SHARE!! Tons of love and work in this, please help spread the DOVE LOVE! 🙏

May the Wings of Peace

Wrap around you

Surround you

And the Pure love

Within you

Carry you on...

Salaam • Shalom • Shanti Om

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Also see a related film:

“Red Ribbon Remembrance”

The Singularity Project

The feature film “Mary in the White Room”, together with its companion Television pilot, “Singularity”, are the first installments in a new sci-fi universe authored by Steven Vincent.

Mary in the White Room

“The Singularity Project” aspires to be the natural successor to the great science fiction franchises of the last millennium. The time has come, now at the very real birth of a New World, for a re-imagining, and reinvigoration of our narratives surrounding technology, humanity, intelligence, being, identity and, of course, the Answer to The Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything.

As creators we can choose to engage in authentic and constructive narrative on the truth of our world and the times we live. We can share imaginative yet meaningful stories that inspire humanity to a more just, compassionate world. And we can accomplish this while both entertaining as well as engaging on multiple levels. It can move our hearts and souls as well as stimulate and nurture our minds.

THE SINGULARITY

The Singularity refers to the theoretical moment in time when artificial intelligence and other scientific and technological advances become so powerful and capable that they exceed the human ability to comprehend them. At that point, the pace of technological progress and societal change becomes so rapid and complex that previous models of reality fundamentally break down.

The Singularity poses provocative questions for storytellers about humanity's relationship with technology, the future of human evolution and potential scenarios that defy our current conceptions. Beyond science fiction, The Singularity invites us to consider how emerging technologies could reshape society, culture, and what it truly means to be human.

THE SINGULARITY PROJECT

“The Singularity Project" is a universe of media that tackles the entertainment challenges posed by these unique and significant times. Fresh, relevant, grounded in current science and forward-looking, it tackles the real-world problems and opportunities facing humanity now and into the future with creative, stimulating narrative and interactive audience engagement.

Luma. Opening image of “Singularity: Variations”

This new Intellectual Property bridges the Sci-Fi, Adventure, Fantasy, Thriller and Action genres with themes of technological and spiritual evolution. Firmly established in our reality, it begins in the near future and arcs to a climactic nexus some 500 years later.

The cultural legacy of preceding Sci-Fi properties percolates through the storylines. How will past portrayals of artificial intelligence in science fiction impact real-world AI as it emerges? How will AI view itself and humanity in light of the stories that we have told ourselves about it? These are real, valid and imminent questions that have not been explored yet and The Singularity Project engages them and many similar questions with respect and love while casting a fresh eye upon our rapidly unfolding new reality.

The universe of The Singularity Project is neither dystopian nor utopian. All future challenges and dangers are entertained alongside the amazing opportunities and potentialities. The fearful and the hopeful co-author each other symbiotically, pushing the dynamical story forward through time.

The inclusive cast of in-universe characters brings a wide range of demographics inside the story and the novel world-building constructs a future of diverse new ways of being.

Some examples:

• A gender-fluid robot who becomes a global hero and pop star

• The robot’s trans woman bestie

• Two future evolved human races which are genderless

• A new form of hate violence: anti-Transhumanism

• A population of “Poddies”, Virtual Reality Immersion pod addicts

WORKS IN PROGRESS

Here are some additional screenplays, books and stories and that are currently works-in-progress:

Screenplays:

“Station Zero” (Feature Film, Sci-Fi Action Adventure)

The future of humanity hangs in the balance as a space station critical to the survival of The Intelligence Project is attacked by Agents of The SAMSON Initiative and open kinetic warfare breaks out between the two global Artificial Intelligence systems.

“Singularity”, Season One

The storyline and character arcs for an entire 10 episode first season are ready to roll and the series arcs are being developed.

Novels/Books:

“Mary in the White Room”

In 2278, a young Transhuman looks to the past for answers to present problems and finds inspiration in the heroic story of MAARI, the world’s first fully self-aware, human-like robot intelligence.

“The Second War”

In 2128, war breaks out between the technological Transhuman Network and the psychic New Human Evolute as the pure human DNA required to sustain both species becomes an increasingly rare resource.

“Conscious Evolution: A Choice for Humanity”

Co-authored by former foes Ursula Banks-Howe and Juan Aragon Salazar, this book of meditations on science and philosophy finds common ground on both the potentials and dangers facing the future of humanity in the year 2032. Rather than standing in opposition, can transhumanist and psychic evolutionism complement each other? Together, the founder of Conscious Evolutionism and the first Transhuman to Link with The Intelligence push on the boundary of what it means to be human.

Stories:

“The Austin Breach”

In 2028, an Artificial Intelligence controlling and powered by the first continuously operating Nuclear FusionReactor develops a will of its own and its designer, Juan Aragon Salazar, is called in to shut it down.

“Poddies”

Ursula Banks-Howe trains “Sensitives”, psychically evolved persons who are now frequently going insane after interacting with “Poddies”, heavy users of Virtual Reality Immersion Pod systems. Her efforts to help them leads her to a dark discovery and a dangerous secret.

“The Link”

Jared Singh finally cracks the nanobot technology that makes a permanent, continuous Link to The Intelligence possible. When he’s denied participation in the pilot project, he betrays his mentor and sells out to The SAMSON Initiative with terrifying consequences both for himself and the world.

“OFF the Trans”

The Transhumans, they say, are plotting to take over the world and establish themselves as a new Master Race. Rapper “Hugh Mann” bursts on the scene with mega-viral hits like “OFF the Trans” and “Robot Overlords”. But 16 year old Arya does some sleuthing and finds a dark agenda at work. The so-called populist street performer isn’t really what people think.

THE FUTURE IS NOW

2178. A young Transhuman “Minor”

The interweaving storylines of The Singularity Project will express themselves through the full range of legacy media including TV series, films, audioplays, video games, novels, short stories and comic books. Forward looking creators know, however, that the entire entertainment complex is about to be thoroughly remade by a host of production and distribution technologies that will change literally everything very quickly. This Project seeks to connect with creative visionaries who recognize the value of the first-mover advantage in this context.

We should intend to build this new property from the ground up to align with and champion the new emerging reality of creating, showing, seeing and interpreting media. We should be ready to embrace and introduce the New Wave of storytelling.

There are times when leaning on the established past is the smart move. But this is the time to be leaning into the future as the momentum of change carries the world forward. The great adventure is upon us! As Juan Aragon Salazar, a key in-universe character says, “We must engage the future forthrightly, or risk becoming the objects of its mighty imposition”.

SHORT TERM GOALS

• Completion and publication of the novelization of “Mary in the White Room”

• Completion and publication of a series of short stories

• Continuing to write and cultivate the storylines and characters that will make The Singularity Project a highly successful property.

• Creation of video trailers, pre-visualization images, mood boards, pitch decks

• Training of character chatbots for fan immersive experience (in progress)

• Cultivation of an online social media presence and following

• Developing audience and visibility for the IP, expanding its reach

• Recruiting representation, talent and investors to the Project

Consistent with the overarching theme of Artificial Intelligence and technological progress, the property will immediately develop and embrace all of the newly emerging creation and production tools to move this agenda forward.

The author invites all intrepid adventurers to enter together into the crucible of the medium and become the agents of the exponentially dynamic interplay between the unfolding reality and the stories we tell about it. This historical moment represents the greatest opportunity that will ever be offered by the Universe to visionary writers, directors, producers and investors. We are being called on to imagine futures that will become profound meditations on what it means to be human at a time when human abilities are being radically augmented, expanded, simulated and replicated. This is our opportunity to help steward society into an era previously unimaginable by shaping the emerging vision of the future through the stories we choose to tell. The Singularity Project answers history’s call for narratives that can guide the world into the unimagined epoch we are fast approaching.

“Mary in the White Room"

“Singularity”